Cost overrun risk is a persistent challenge in construction projects, leading to significant financial implications and project delays. Accurate forecasting of cost overrun probability is crucial for effective project planning, risk management, and decision-making. This study proposes a fuzzy model for forecasting the probability of cost overrun risk in Indian construction projects. The fuzzy model incorporates multiple input variables, including project characteristics, economic factors, and external influences, to assess the uncertainty and imprecision associated with cost overrun risk. Historical project data is utilized to develop the fuzzy model, and a comprehensive validation process is conducted to assess its accuracy and reliability. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy model in providing probabilistic forecasts of cost overrun risk, enabling project stakeholders to proactively identify and mitigate potential risks.

Cost overrun risk, construction projects, probability forecasting

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